云南鲁甸堰塞湖流域面雨量决策服务关键技术.pdf

2 0 1 7 云南鲁甸堰塞湖流域面雨量决策服务关键技术 1 1 1 1 2 2 赵鲁强 田华 李宛育 刘鑫 许凤雯 包红军 (1 中国气象局公共气象服务中心，北京 100081；2 国家气象中心，北京 100081） 摘要：2014年8月3日，云南省昭通市鲁甸县发生地震，形成红石岩堰塞湖，对牛栏江上下游造成严重威胁。提供流域 面雨量服务是堰塞湖抢险排险的重要保障。介绍了云南鲁甸堰塞湖流域面雨量服务中的流域边界确定和流域面雨量计算 方法。在此基础上，利用GIS地理建模技术，构建了面雨量计算模型，实现面雨量计算流程的集成和快捷计算，为开展 类似的应急决策服务提供方法和经验借鉴。 关键词：堰塞湖，流域边界，面雨量，GIS，应急决策 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2017.01.023 Key Techniques of Decision Making Service for Areal Precipitation Calculation in the Upper Reaches of Dammed Lakes in Ludian County, Yunnan Province 1 1 1 1 2 2 Zhao Luqiang , Tian Hua , Li Wanyu , Liu Xin , Xu Fengwen , Bao Hongjun (1 China Meteorological Administration Public Meteorological Service Centre, Beijing 100081 2 National Meteorologcal Centre, Beijing 100081) Abstract: On August 3, 2014, the earthquake occurred in Ludian county of Zhaotong city, Yunnan province, forming Hongshiyan dammed lakes. It seriously threaten to the upper and lower reaches of Niulanjiang river. It is very important to provide meteorological service of areal precipitation to the emergency rescue for the dammed lakes. In this paper, we introduce the method of boundary extraction and areal precipitation calculation in the upper reaches of dammed lakes in Ludian county, Yunnan province. Then we established a model of areal precipitation calculation by employing GIS geographic modeling techniques. It is found that the process integration and fast calculation may serve to the decision makers for such kind of emergency. Keywords: dammed lake, basin boundary, areal precipitation, GIS, emergency decision 0 前言 化，而流域的水位和流量变化与流域的平均降水量 20 14年8月3 日16时30分，在云南省昭通市鲁甸县 （面雨量）密切相关[1] 。