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监测与再评估 定期审查 (风险的性质、对待风险的态度), 至少将其纳入规划常态与审查步骤的一部分。 需要考虑如下变化： 目标 阈值 时标 新出现的科学或选择 风险态度 选择与策略的效力/绩效 .uk * * * * * * * * To simplify a complex problem we take time out of the equation using maximum flood level rise as a surrogate for climate change with time. We then developed different portfolios of responses to manage these rising flood levels through four principal pathways or “routes” through the century. The final plan could be a combination of approaches. Putting the four climate change scenarios back on the diagram enables us to understand the epochs at which different portfolios of measures may have to be implemented and the sequencing arrangements for the different flood management responses. * * * * * * * * * To simplify a complex problem we take time out of the equation using maximum flood level rise as a surrogate for climate change with time. We then developed different portfolios of responses to manage these rising flood levels through four principal pathways or “routes” through the century. The final plan could be a combination of approaches. Putting the four climate change scenarios back on the diagram enables us to understand the epochs at which different portfolios of measures may have to be implemented and the sequencing arrangements for the different flood management responses. Risk Assessment to Adaptation Planning, Implementation and Evaluation Presidential Plaza Hotel, Beijing Friday, 05th March 2009 Roger B Street Technical Director 从风险评估到适应预测， 实施与评价 北京国宾酒店 2010年3月5日 Roger B Street 技术指导 Why Risk Assessment ? Faced with an uncertain future Risk-based approach to managing in the context of these changes (climate and other drivers) – a rationale approach Risk assessment Used to identify risks – necessary but insufficient Used to concentrate efforts (investments, policies and programmes) on those risks deemed priorities Adaptation assessment – identifying “appropriate” adaptation options and strategies and evaluating them in terms of cr