国际金融课件--Chapter2ForeignExchangeExchangeRate(外汇与汇率).pptxVIP

Chapter 2. Foreign Exchange Exchange Rate;Characteristics of FE;Review of Marxist’;Variety of FE;Foreign Exchange Rate;The Adapted Speech from VIP-1;The Adapted Speech from VIP-2;Direct Quotation;Indirect Quotation;Other Classifications;基本汇率 vs 套算汇率 Basic rate vs Cross rate Based on the key currency and calculate other rates. It is a triangle relationship. 香港把美元作为关键货币计算出基本汇率为1美元=7.86港元，如果纽约市场上1英镑=1.63美元，那么，港币对英镑的汇率就可以套算出来 1英镑=7.86×1.63=12.81港元 ;币别Currency;Defray and Speed;Date of Delivery;Examples: 间接标价法：升水→即期-升水（英镑与美元） 即期汇率：1.8870~1.8890 升水： 103 ~ 98 远期汇率：1.8767 ~1.8792 直接标价法：升水→即期+升水（马克与美元） 　　即期汇率：2.2690~2.2720 升水： 118 ~ 128 远期汇率：2.2808 ~2.2848 ;Official vs Market;Other Terms;Real Exchange Rate;实际汇率 (RER)= 名义汇率 - 通货膨胀率 扣除通货膨胀因素的实际汇率可以下式表示: P* e = E ── P其中，e：实际汇率；E：名义汇率； P*：外国的价格指数；P：本国的价格指数。 PT为贸易商品的价格；PN为非贸易商品的价格。 主要目的是测量竞争地位的变化。;Determinant of Exchange Rate;Mint Par 铸币平价;Bank Note; Paper Money;Main Factors affecting FER;Impact on the Economy;2. 对物价水平：引发通货膨胀和贬值的恶性循环 (1) 进口物价带动工资；(2)进口原材料，设备↗→出口商品↑。 4. 对资本输出入：影响对贬值货币的信心；(1)资本外逃和货币替代；(2)有利于直接投资FDI; 5. 对国民收入再分配：与出口相关部门得益；与进口相关部门受损。 6. 对生产要素利用：劳动密集型；资本技术密集型；技术密集型； ;Adverse cycle of devaluation;Exchange Theories;二 汇兑心理说 (Psychological Theory of Exchange) 阿夫达里昂(Aftalion) Points: Marginal Utility 人们主观评价中的边际效用来决定外币价值。 主观到客观，而客观又反过来影响主观。 观察和实证上升到经验，经验来说明现象。;Purchasing Power Parity (PPP);The same commodity It costs $200 in U.S; It costs DM600 in Germany;Absolute PPP Relative PPP;The U.S. price was nearly 89 percent higher than the China’s Price ;A Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPP, PPP does badly.;The actual mark-dollar exchange rate and the PPP-implied exchange rate;Empirical Study on PPP;PPP: an monetary approach?;Interest Rate Parity Theory-1;Interest Rate Parity Theory-2;Today’s dollar/DM exchange rate;Dollar interest rate;Uncovered Interest Pa