反向累积法GM_2_1_模型及其病态性研究.pdfVIP

第34 卷第4 期 合肥工业大学学报( 自然 科 学 版 ) V ol. 34 N o . 4 2011 年4 月 JO U RN AL O F H E FEI U N IV E RSIT Y OF T E CH N OL O GY A pr . 20 11 Doi: 10 . 3969/ j . is sn . 100 35060. 2011. 04. 029 G M ( 2, 1) 1 1 1 2 1 3 刘圣保 , 张公让 , 毛雪岷 , 徐瑞宏, 张 勇 , 李巧巧 ( 1. , 230009 2. , 23 1281 3. , 230009) : , GM ( 2, 1) , , , , , G M ( 2 , 1) , GM ( 2, 1) , GM ( 2 , 1) : GM ( 2, 1) : N 94 15 : A : 100 35060 ( 2011) Research on reverse accumulating GM( 2, 1) model and i ts morbidity probl em 1 1 1 LIU Shengb ao , ZH A N G Go ngrang , M A O Xu em in , 2 1 3 X U Ru ihong , ZH A N G Y ong , L I Q iaoqiao ( 1. School of M anagement , H ef ei U niv ersit y of T echn ol ogy, Hef ei 230009, Ch ina 2. T h e P eopl es G ov ern men t of X iaom iao T ow n, F eix i C ou nt y , H ef ei 23 1281, China 3. S chool of Civ il and H y drau lic Engineerin g , H ef ei U n iv ersit y of T ech nology , H efei 230009, China) Abstract: By u sing g rey syst em t heo ry, a new concept of r everse accumulat ing met ho d is put forw ard based on t he conf iguring principle of G M ( 2 , 1) m odel. A new p arameter est imat io n met ho d is given, w hich r eplaces t he least squ are method t o so lve t he syst em p aram et ers. T his method redu ces t he com putat ion qu ant ity and avo ids t he complex m at rix operat ions result ing f rom using the least squ ar e met h o d. It also solv es t he problem of un scientif ic selection of initial valu es. In view of t he m orbidit y