全球肥胖流行性.pdfVIP

Stevens et al. Population Health Metrics 2012, 10:22 /content/10/1/22 RESEARCH Open Access National, regional, and global trends in adult overweight and obesity prevalences 1 2 2 3 2 2 Gretchen A Stevens , Gitanjali M Singh , Yuan Lu , Goodarz Danaei , John K Lin , Mariel M Finucane , 4 4 4 5 6 Adil N Bahalim , Russell K McIntire , Hialy R Gutierrez , Melanie Cowan , Christopher J Paciorek , Farshad Farzadfar7 5 8* , Leanne Riley , Majid Ezzati for the Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group (Body Mass Index) Abstract Background: Overweight and obesity prevalence are commonly used for public and policy communication of the extent of the obesity epidemic, yet comparable estimates of trends in overweight and obesity prevalence by country are not available. Methods: We estimated trends between 1980 and 2008 in overweight and obesity prevalence and their uncertainty for adults 20 years of age and older in 199 countries and territories. Data were from a previous study, which used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean body mass index (BMI) based on published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiologic studies. Here, we used the estimated mean BMIs in a regression model to predict overweight and obesity prevalence by age, country, year, and sex. The uncertainty of the estimates included both those of the Bayesian hierarchical model and the uncertainty due to cross-walking from mean BMI to overweight and obesity prevalence. Results: The global age-standardize