基于GIS及均方差决策法山区县域资源环境承载力评价.docVIP

基于GIS及均方差决策法山区县域资源环境承载力评价 　　摘要：以典型贫困山区县云南省永德县为例，采用研究区土地利用总体规划成果与相关资源环境资料对山区县域的土地资源、水资源、地质环境以及生态环境等进行了多方面的单要素承载力分析，并基于空间关联建立综合评价体系，采用均方差决策法确定综合承载力权重，借助GIS空间分析技术计算区域资源环境综合承载力。结果表明，2013年永德县综合承载力为0.517 2。依据土地利用总体规划成果和人口发展预测出2020年综合承载力为0.509 8，较2013年有所下降，但仍处于中级承载力水平。总的来说，永德县全县整体承载能力较好，但乌木龙乡承载力为低级，承载形势严峻 关键词：资源环境承载力；GIS；均方差决策法；永德县 中图分类号：F205；F301.2 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2017）03-0454-05 DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2017.03.014 Assessment of Regional Carrying Capacity of Resources and Environment at Mountain County Area Based on GIS and Mean Square Difference Method OU Tao1， ZHANG Shu-qing2， GAN Shu1， YANG Yan2， LIAO Shun-kuan2， MA Shi-lin2， XU Xu3 （1. Institute of Land and Resources Engineering， Kunming University of Science and Technology， Kunming 650093， China； 2.Yunnan Institute of Land Resource Program and Design， Kunming 650216， China；3.Geophysical and Geochemical Prospecting Team of Yunnan Geology and Mineral Exploration and Development Bureau，Kunming 652100，China） Abstract： Taking Yongde county of Yunnan province as study area， which is a typical poor mountainous area， the single factor carrying capacity of land resources， water resources， geological environment and ecological environment and so on in mountain area were analyzed based on the overall land use planning results and related resources and environment information. A comprehensive evaluation system was established based on the spatial correlation， the weight of bearing capacity was determined by the method of mean square deviation， and the comprehensive carrying capacity of regional resources and environment was calculated with the GIS spatial analysis technology. The results showed that， the comprehensive carrying capacity of Yongde county was 0.517 2 in 2013， and would be 0.509 8 in 2020 according to the land use overall planning results and population development， compared with the 2013， it was decline， but it would be still in the middle level of bearing capacity. In genera