乘坡河流域洪水预报模型比较研究.pdf

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2017, 6(1), 55-65 Published Online February 2017 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2017.61008 Comparative Study of Flood Forecasting Models at Chengpo River Basin 1 2 1 1 Yizhou Yao , Shuang Xu , Xusheng Zhao , Guangwei Fan 1 Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute of PRWRC, Guangzhou Guangdong 2 Pearl River Water Resources Commission, Guangzhou Guangdong th th th Received: Jan. 20 , 2017; accepted: Feb. 7 , 2017; published: Feb. 10 , 2017 Abstract The accumulation of flash floods is low and the preparation of flood forecasting schemes is difficult. To address this issue, we take the Chengpo river basin in Hainan, one of the humid areas in south part of China. The lumped Xinanjiang model based on the runoff generation and the distributed TOPMODEL model were selected for flood simulation. The results of both models are good for humid regions in Hai- nan. These two models can be used to guide the small and medium-sized river basin for flood forecasting and early warning. Generally speaking, Xinanjiang model is more accurate when the pre-soil is wetter; the TOPMODEL model performs better for the larger flood events. Keywords Flash Flood, Flood Forecasting, Xinanjiang Model, TOPMODEL 乘坡河流域洪水预报模型比较研究 1 2 1 1 姚亦周 ，徐 爽 ，赵旭升 ，范光伟 1珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院，广东 广州 2珠江水利委员会，广东 广州 收稿日期：2017年1月20 日；录用日期：2017年2月7 日；发布日期：2017年2月10 日 摘 要 中小流域山洪资料积累较少，洪水预报方案编制困难。针对该问题，以南方湿润地区海南乘坡河流域为例，选 作者简介：姚亦周，男，河北石家庄人，主要从事水文预报、水库调度、系统开发、流域水资源模拟、流域地理数据空间分析等工作。 文章引用: 姚亦周, 徐爽, 赵旭升, 范光伟. 乘坡河流域洪水预报模型比较研究[J]. 水资源研究, 2017, 6(1): 55-65. /10.12677/jwrr.2017.61008 乘坡河流域洪水预报模型比较研究 取以蓄满产流为基础的集总式新安江模型和分布式TOPMODEL模型开展洪水模拟研究。结果表明，对于海南湿 润地区，新安江模型和TOPMODEL模型产汇流模拟效果都较好，均可用于指导中小流域进行洪水预报预警。但 相对而言，前期土壤较为湿润时，新安江模型的模拟效果较好；对