风险评价数学3 AHP1.pptVIP

Logistics Decision Analysis Methods;Thomas L. Saaty;;He is the architect of the decision theory, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to decisions with dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). He has published numerous articles and more than 12 books on these subjects. His nontechnical book on the AHP, Decision Making for Leaders, has been translated to more than 10 languages. His book, The Brain: Unraveling the Mystery of How It Works, generalizing the ANP further to neural firing and synthesis, appeared in the year 2000. ;He is currently involved in extending his mathematical multicriteria decision-making theory to how to synthesize group and societal influences. He is also developing the Super Decisions software that implements the ANP and it is available free at /. ;The AHP is used in both individual and group decision-making by business, industry, and governments and is particularly applicable to complex large-scale multiparty multicriteria decision problems The ANP has been applied to a variety of decisions involving benefits, costs, opportunities, and risks and is particularly useful in predicting outcomes. At the Katz School he teaches Decision Making in Complex Environments, using both the AHP and the ANP and Creativity and Problem Solving. He has recently completed a book on the subject of creativity and problem solving that includes a CD of more than 140 colorful specially designed PowerPoint slides.;Motivation – 1（动机之一）;Motivation – 2（动机之二）;Motivation – 3（动机之三）;Introduction – 1（介绍之一）;Introduction – 2（介绍之二）;Introduction – 3（介绍之三）;Major Steps of AHP（主要步骤）;Constructing Hierarchies;Establishing Priorities;Advantages of the AHP;Hierarchy Development MPG（油耗）;;Pairwise Comparisons;;;;;;Pairwise Comparison Matrix;Preference Scale – 1（优先的尺度）;Preference Scale – 2（优先顺序2）;;;;;;;Synthesis（合成）;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Procedure for Synthesizing Judgments;Example: Synthesizing Procedure - 0;Example: Synthesizing Proced