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In praise of pessimists 我们现在需要悲观主义者 Sometimes it helps if investors are gloomy 有时投资者的悲观情绪会大有益处 BARELY a week goes by without a report on the level of confidence among consumers, businesspeople and investors. Optimism is what’s wanted—Keynes talked of the “animal spirits” that influence economic activity. Pessimists are routinely denounced as Jeremiahs. Those who try to bet on falling prices find their activities are restricted. 几乎每周都会有信心指数公布出来，不是消费者信心指数，就是企业家或投资者的信心指数。乐观主义是人们喜闻乐见的，凯恩斯就谈到过“动物精神”对经济活动的促进作用。而悲观主义者常常被指责为“耶利米”。[注]那些趁价格下降靠卖空来赚钱的人，会遇到各种规则上的限制。 A cheery disposition may be necessary for societies to function. Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist and Nobel economics laureate, has a chapter in his book “Thinking Fast and Slow” which describes overconfidence as “the engine of capitalism”. No entrepreneur can be sure that his planned investment will succeed but if no one took a risk, new products and jobs would never be created. A certain blindness to the odds may be necessary. According to Mr Kahneman, the chances of an American small business surviving for five years are just 35%. But ask individual entrepreneurs about their prospects and 81% think they have a better than seven-in-ten chance of success. 乐观的性格对社会的正常运作可能是必不可少的。心理学家和诺贝尔奖获得者丹尼尔?卡纳曼在他的书《Thinking Fast and Slow》中有一章专门讲到，过度自信是“资本主义的引擎”。企业家不可能事先知道他的投资能否成功，但如果没有人愿意承担风险，新的产品和就业机会永远也不会被创造出来。 因此，某种程度的盲目乐观可能是必要的。据卡纳曼先生的资料，美国小企业的五年存活率只有35%。但是，如果你问小企业家们自己，81%的人会认为他们的成功机率在七成以上。 This self-confidence may be innate, just as most people think they are better-than-average drivers. And it would seem logical that the most optimistic people gravitate towards entrepreneurship. That is good for consumers, who can select from a wider variety of products. Even the failed businesses serve a purpose. Daniel Gross, a journalist, wrote a book claiming that bubbles were good for economies since they leave behind infrastructure (canals, railways, fibre-optic cable) that can last for generations. 这种自信可能是天生的，正像大多数人认为自己的驾车技术在常人之上一样。所以不