养老保险替代率警戒线测算模型及实证分析——以陕西省为例.pdfVIP

2008 年第5 期 人 口与经 济 No. 5, 2008 ( 总第170 期) POPULATION ECONOMICS (Tot. No. 170) 养老保险替代率警戒线测算模型及实证分析 ) ) ) 以陕西省为例 , ( 西安交 大学 公共政策与管理学院, 陕西 西安 710049) : , , ( ELES) , , 。, 1997~ 2006 45% , , , 2012 , 。 : : F840167 : A : 1000- 4149 ( 2008) 05- 0066- 05 An Emp ir ical Analysis on the Calculation of Pension Insur ance Substitut ion Rate Alert ness Line: Based on Shanxi P rovin ce SUN Bo, YONG Lan ( School of Public Policy and Administrat ion , Xi. an Jiaotong University, Xi. an , 710049, China) Abstract : In accordance with the principal th at pension insurance must satisfy with basic living demand of retired staff, th e pension insurance substitution rate alertness line is fixed at the lower limit. Based on Extend Linear Expenditure System ( ELES) the pension insurance substitution rate alertness model and indicator system are established , and an empirical an alysis taking Shanxi Province as example is made. The results demonstrates that from 1997 to 2006, the substitution rate alertness line was 45% , remaining steady while during the same period, the real substitution rate decreased at a relatively high speed. The trend will continue. The alertness level will have b een reached around 2012 , wh ich will bring about severs impact on retired staff. s basic living conditions. Keywor ds: pension insurance substitution rate alertness line Extend Linear Expenditure System 、 养老保险制度的基本功能是