基于小波理论的光伏电站输出功率预测精要.docxVIP

基于小波理论的光伏电站输出功率预测摘要当前，我国的市场经济体制已经逐步的建立起来，社会经济处于快速发展当中，能源的需求量也不断的扩大。随着有限能源的不断消耗，能源短缺与环境污染等问题形成了全球性的能源危机，如何发展可再生能源成文人们关注的焦点。当前，太阳能成为了环节能源危机的重要能源，由此也带动了光伏产业的发展。光伏发电系统通过对太阳能的使用具有安装灵活，维护简单，环境友好等优点，因此，通过对光伏发电系统输出功率的预测，能够促使光伏发电与传统电源系统的配合，降低发电系统给接入电网带来的不利影响。本文对光伏发电系统输出功率预测技术进行了探讨和研究，构建基于小波理论的太阳辐照度预测模型，在此基础上对光伏电站输出功率进行预测，预测结果良好，预测精度较高。关键词：光伏电站；输出功率；小波理论；太阳辐射照度AbstractAt present, our countrys market economy system has been gradually established, the social economy is in rapid development, energy demand is also expanding. With the constant consumption of the limited energy, energy shortage and environmental pollution, the global energy crisis has been formed, and how to develop the renewable energy source has been the focus of peoples attention. Currently, solar energy has become an important part of the energy crisis, which also led to the development of photovoltaic industry. Photovoltaic power generation system by the use of solar energy has a flexible installation, maintenance is simple, environmental friendly. Therefore, through the prediction of the output power of the photovoltaic power generation system to promote photovoltaic power and conventional power system with, reduce the generating system to access grid brings adverse effects. This paper on the output power of the photovoltaic power generation system prediction technology has carried on the discussion and the research, construct the prediction model based on wavelet theory of solar irradiance. Based on the output power of the photovoltaic power station to predict, forecast result is good, the precision of prediction is high.Key word：Photovoltaic power station; output power; wavelet theory; solar irradiance1引言太阳能是一种无污染的可再生能源，并且是“取之不尽、用之不竭”的清洁能源，在面对能源危机的今天受到了广泛的关注和使用。光伏产业是对太阳能资源进行开发利用的产业，近年来得到了世界各国政府的大力支持，全球范围内的光伏产业得到了很好的发展。有研究数据表明，截止到2013年底，全球光伏发电装机容量为13886万kW；新增容量3835万kW。1996-2013年世界光伏发电装机容量如图1.1所示。到2013年底，德国、中国、意大利、日本和美国是全球光伏装机容量最多的五个国家。其中德国装机容量3572万kW位列世界总装机容量第一位，中国2013年的新增容量1180万kW位居第一，总装机容量为第四，如图1-2所示。图1.1