通货膨胀目标制的国际比较及在我国的适应性研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 摘 要 20 世纪 90 年代以来，许多工业化国家和新兴市场国家相继实施通货膨胀目标制这 种货币政策框架。所有实施通货膨胀目标制的国家，都成功地将通货膨胀率控制在较低 的水平，增强了货币政策的可信度，实现金融稳定。这些国家的成功经验是值得我们学 习和借鉴的。研究这些国家通货膨胀目标制货币政策制度具体运用情况及相应的经验教 训，对我国改革货币政策﹑维持宏观经济的良好运行具有非常重要的现实意义。 本文首先阐述了通货膨胀目标制相关理论，然后选取了新西兰、加拿大、以色列和 韩国作为样本考察了通货膨胀目标制的政策实践，比较分析了这些国家的通货膨胀目标 制框架设计，在此基础上，归纳总结出这些国家实施通货膨胀目标制的经验。最后分析 了目前中国实施通货膨胀目标制的适应性问题，提出了国外通货膨胀目标制对我国货币 政策框架的启示。 本文得出结论：通货膨胀目标制是一种有效的、可行的、新型的货币政策理论，可 以降低通货膨胀率和通货膨胀预期，稳定经济增长，增强中央银行透明度和责任度。基 于我国现状，虽然目前我国不适合实施通货膨胀目标制，但是国外通货膨胀目标制的实 践经验为未来我国有效的货币政策理论框架提供了三点重要启示：即我国将物价稳定放 在货币政策首位、加强央行的独立性和进一步完善金融市场。 关键字 通货膨胀目标制 货币政策 物价稳定 I Abstract Abstract Since 1990s, inflation targeting regimes have been adopted by a growing number of central banks in industrial and emerging economies, as a new monetary framework to conduct their monetary policy. With the comparative advantages, the performance of inflation targeting regimes has been quite good. Inflation targeting countries have significantly reduced both the rate of inflation and inflation expectation, stabilized the growth of output, increased the credibility of monetary policy, and achieved price stability. The countrys success experience is worth learning and using for reference. It has very important practical significance that study of these countries inflation targeting monetary policy system and the concrete application of the relevant experience and lessons for the reform of Chinas monetary policy and maintain the good macroeconomic operation. First, the Paper mainly put focus on analysis the mechanism of inflation targeting. Second, the Pa