信息扩散方法在大坝监测效应量预测中的应用.docVIP

信息扩散在大坝监测效应量预测中的应用 李小奇1,2 ,郑东健1,2 ,3 ,曹其光4 (1.河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室，江苏 南京 210098； 2.河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心，江苏 南京 210098； 3) 摘要: 在大坝安全监测中效应量的预测受到多种因素的影响，例如监测样本序列较短，影响因素具有多种不确定性等，导致常规预测模型的拟合残差较大问题，在考虑增加样本信息的基础上，研究建立基于二维正态信息扩散离散回归方法的效应量预测。利用模糊推理和信息集中的基本理论，结合灰色关联度法，对大坝安全监测效应量进行分析和预测，最后应用综合有效度指标来评价的效果。实例表明，基于信息扩散的预测避免了多种不确定因素下小样本的困难，提高了拟合和预测精度。 关键词: 信息扩散，大坝监测，预测，模糊推理，综合有效度 Application of information diffusion in effect quantity prediction of dam monitoring LI Xiaoqi1,2,a, ZHENG Dongjian1,2,b, CAO Lianpeng3,c, CAO Qiguang4,d, (1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2.National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 3.Weifang Water Conservancy and Architecture Designing Institute, Weifang 261205, China; 4.Sinosteel Maanshan Institute of Mining Research Co,Ltd, Maanshan, China) alxq0920@, bzhengdj@, ccaolianpeng-aq@163.com, d563973315@ Abstract: In dam safety monitoring, the forecasting of effect quantity influenced by many factors, such as the short monitoring sample sequence and kinds of uncertainty influence factors, which leads to the larger prediction residuals of conventional models. In order to solve this problem, the prediction approach of effect quantity of dam safety monitoring based on increasing the sample information and 2D normal information diffusion based on the discrete regression method was established. The effect quantity of dam safety monitoring was analyzed and predicted based on the basic theory of fuzzy reasoning and information concentration, combined with the grey correlation degree. Finally, the result of information diffusion approach was evaluated by the index of comprehensive effectiveness. The example shows that the information diffusion approach avoids the difficulties of small sample prediction, improves the accuracy of fitting and forecasting. Keywords: Inform