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Dan Gilbert: Why we make bad decisions 0:11We all make decisions every day; we want to know?what the right thing is to do -- in domains from the financial?to the gastronomic to the professional to the romantic.?And surely, if somebody could really tell us how to do?exactly the right thing at all possible times,?that would be a tremendous gift. 0:29It turns out that, in fact, the world was given this gift in 1738?by a Dutch polymath named Daniel Bernoulli.?And what I want to talk to you about today is what that gift is,?and I also want to explain to you why it is?that it hasnt made a damn bit of difference. 0:46Now, this is Bernoullis gift. This is a direct quote.?And if it looks like Greek to you, its because, well, its Greek.?But the simple English translation -- much less precise,?but it captures the gist of what Bernoulli had to say -- was this:?The expected value of any of our actions --?that is, the goodness that we can count on getting --?is the product of two simple things:?the odds that this action will allow us to gain something,?and the value of that gain to us. 0:11大家每天都在做决定；谁都想知道?如何做正确的事情--无论是金融、?烹饪，还是职业、爱情方面?那么，如果有人能指导我们?每次都做对?那将是一个非常了不起的才能 0:29其实，早在1738年世人就见识过了拥有这项才能的人?他是荷兰学者Daniel Bernoulli?今天我们就来讲这是怎样一种才能?我还会告诉你为什么即使知道其中的道理?也不会事事顺利 0:46这就是Bernoulli的思路，原始的表述?如果这看起来像希腊字母一样，是因为，嗯，这确实是希腊字母。?翻译成英语--没有原文那样的精确?但基本上诠释了Bernoulli的主要思想，那就是?我们任何行为的预估价值?或者说能得到的好处?是两样东西的乘积?一个是成功的概率?另一个是成功所带来的价值1:18In a sense, what Bernoulli was saying is,?if we can estimate and multiply these two things,?we will always know precisely how we should behave. 1:26Now, this simple equation, even for those of you?who dont like equations, is something that youre quite used to.?Heres an example: if I were to tell you, lets play?a little coin toss game, and Im going to flip a coin,?and if it comes up heads, Im going to pay you 10 dollars,?but you have to pay four dollars for the privilege of playing with me,?most of you would say, sure, Ill take that bet. Because you know?that the odds of