基于三维洪水演进模拟的洪水溃堤保险定价应用研究.pdfVIP

水利水电技术第45 卷 2014 年第11 期 基于三维洪水演进模拟的洪水溃堤 保险定价应用研究 郭伟萍，刘肖车，周正印，列、这35 ，孙小沛 (天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室，天津 3∞072) 摘 要:洪水保险是防洪减灾的一项重要非工程措施，保险费率厘定是洪水保险需要解决的关键问 题。通过建立藕合VOF 法与 k- ε 紊流模型的三维洪水演进数学模型，对渍堤洪水演进过程进行了数 值模拟。在此基础上可以得到渍堤洪水引起的经济损失，与通过 CAPM 模型得出的风险附加费率， 最终确定洪水总保险费率。将该方法应用于某堤坝工程，进行了不同渍堤情况下的洪水保险费的计 算，验证了其实用性，旨在为我国渍堤洪水保险定价提出一种新的研究思路。 关键词:渍堤;三维洪水演进;洪水保险费率;保险费率厘定 中图分类号: TV871 文献标识码:B 文章编号: 1仪lO-0860(2014) 11-∞96-05 3D t100d routing simulation-based study on application of t100d insurance pricing for embankment breach GUO Weiping , LIU Xiaojun , ZHOU Zhe吨yin ， SUN Ruirui , SUN Xiaopei (State Key Laboratory of Hydrau1ic Engineering Simulation and Safety , Tianjin University , Tianjin 3αlO72 ， China ) Abstract: F100d insurance is an important non-engineering meas旧e for flood contro1 and disaster reduction , whi1e the insurance ratemaking is a key prob1em necessary to be solved for the flood insurance. Through estab1ishing a 3D flood routing mathematical mode1 with VOF method and k - e turbulence mode1 , a numerical simulation is made on the process of the flood routing for em- bankment breach. On the basis of this , the economic 10ss from the flood of embankment breach can be got and the risk additional premium rate can be obtained through CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Mode1) mode1 as well , by which the total premium rate for the flood can be final1y determined. App1ying this method to an embankment project , the flood insurance premiums under various embankment breach conditions are calcu1ated for veri行ing its practicability , so as to provide a new study approach for the insur- ance pricing of the embankment breach in China. Key words: embankment breach; 3 D flo