我国政府采购的价格监测.pdfVIP

第 31 卷第2 期 统计研究 Vol. 31 , No.2 Feb. 2014 2014 年 2 月 Statistical Research 我国政府采购的价格监测* 王群勇 陈燕平 内容提要:价格监管的缺失是导致我国政府采购价格虚高的重要原因，也是政府采购价格应低于市场平均价 格这一法律条文变成→纸空文的根源。本文提出了我国政府采购的-个价格监测理论模型，依据采购拍卖理论 测算采购预警价格。与单纯的将采购价格与市场平均价格相比，这种方法更充分地考虑了市场环境和投标环境的 竞争因素。对天津市政府采购中心 2012 年 8 月至 2013 年 7 月份协议采购商品的实证分析表明，该模型具有良好 的拟合能力和稳健性。蒙特卡洛模拟实验表明，该模型对于异常交易的发现率明显提高。 关键词:政府采购;价格监测模型;采购预警价格 申图分类号:C829.2 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1002 - 4565 (2014 )02 - 0018 - 06 Price Monitoring of Government Procurement in China Wang Qunyong Chen Yanping Abstract: The lack of price supe凹ision is a m句。r reason for the artificially high procurement prices and it is also the resource of the impracticable legal provision that .. the government procurement price should be lower than the average market price. The paper proposed a new price supervision model which computes the procurement warning price based on procurement auction theory. Compared with the method of monitoring the procurement price using average market price , our method considers the competing factors of market environment and bid environment. The positive analysis of the goods in Tianjin Government Procurement Center from August 2012 to July 2013 reveals that the model has high fitness and robustness. A Monte Carlo simulation verifies that the model improves the detection rate of abnormal procurements. The model provides an efficient and liable precautionary and warning mechanism for the government p