技术追赶背景下的中外技术学习及竞争博弈——以我国大型风力发电机制造产业为例.pdfVIP

预测 Vo l. 30 , No.4 FORECASTING 2011 年第4 期 技术追赶背景下的中外技术学习及竞争博弈 一一以我国大型风力发电机制造产业为例 徐雨森 {大连理工大学管理学院，辽宁大连 116023 ) 摘 要:后发国家技术追赶历程可以描述为追赶企业、领先企业及后发国家政府之间多主体、多阶段的博寡。具 体过程包括结对学习与结对竞争、二次深度学习与多重竞争的两个承接阶段。本文通过构建博弈模 型及我国大型风电设备制造产业的案例分析，揭示了追赶企业、领先企业如何依据二者技术势差、追赶企业的学 习速度、市场机遇进行行动策略选择:也揭示了后发国家政府根据领先企业的转移意愿、领先企业之间达成技术 保守联盟的情况，如何适时调整产业政策。 关键词:技术追赶;技术学习;博弈分析 中图分类号:归70; 阳62.9 文献标识码:A 文章编号: 1003-5192 (2011 )04-∞01-07 Research on Sino-foreign Technology Learning and Competition Game in Catch-up Stage: Case Study of Large-scale Wind Power Equipment Manufacture Industry in China XU Yu-sen (School 0/Management , Dalian University 0/ Technology , Dalian 116023 , China) Abstrad: The progress of developing coun位y industry s technological catch-up is multi-stage g，回回田nong catch-up enter- pris咽， leading enterprises and the government of developing country. The process of game is divided into two consecutive phases of learning in a 伊oup and completing in a group ，副 well 副 deep learning and multiple completing. Through constructing game models and analyzing evolution progress of large-scale wind power equipment manufacture in- dustry in China , it reveals under the guidance of the government s indu由ial policy about leading enterprises and catch-up enterpri回s how to select each action tactic8 based on the technical gap , the learning speed of catch-up enterprises , market opportunities. Meanwhile , it also ShOW8 the government s action tactics about how ωadjust industrial policy timely accord- ing to the transfer will of leading