基于灰色系统理论的宁波港物流需求预测研究.doc

毕业论文（设计）正文 题目：基于灰色系统理论的宁波港物流需求预测研究 Logistics Demand Forecast Research of Ningbo Port Based on The Gray Theory 学院专 业班 级Logistics Demand Forecast Research of Ningbo Port Based on Gray Theory Abstract: Port logistic demand forecast is an important basis for the planning of the development of port logistics.The forcast precision can provide port logistic planning with a strong theoretical support.The GM(1,1) model is simply established according to the time series data.the forecasting has inevitable errors. This paper predicts general cargo,container number ,foreign trade cargo throughput of Ningbo port through combining the grey G(1,1) model and the Markov Chain model and using the Markov chain model to correct the predictive value of the gray G(1,1) model ,which greatly improving the accuracy of the forecast. According to nearly eight years of data of Ningbo port,the thesis predicts the Ningbo port logistic needs for the next five years,which provides an effective data support for the next round of development of Ningbo port. In the end,this paper will analyze and compare the precision index of predictive value of the grey G(1,1) model and the Markov Chain model.Through this example , we can conclude that the precision of the grey—Markov Chain model is relatively higher and the prediction error is comparatively lower. Keywords: Ningbo port;throughput capacity;predicition;Markov Chain;grey G(1,1) model 正文目录 第1章 绪论 ５ 1.1研究背景和意义 ５ 1.2相关研究综述 ７ 1.2.1国内研究现状 ７ 1.2.2国外研究现状 ８ 第2章 预测方法简介 ９ 2.1 常用预测方法 ９ 2.2 灰色-马尔科夫链模型预测方法 １０ 第3章 灰色预测模型的建立 １２ 3.1 灰色GM(1,1) 模型 １２ 3.2灰色马尔科夫链模型 １６ 第四章 基于灰色-马尔科夫链模型的相关指标预测 １９ 4.1宁波港港口吞吐量分析 １９ 4.2宁波港总货物吞吐量预测 ２０ 4.2.1基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的宁波港总货物吞吐量预测 ２０ 4.2.2基于灰色—马尔科夫链模型的宁波港总货物吞吐量预测 ２１ 4.3宁波港集装箱吞吐量预测 ２３ 4.3.1基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的宁波港集装箱吞吐量预测 ２３ 4.3.2基于灰色—马尔科夫链模型的宁波港集装箱吞吐量预测 ２４ 第五章 总结及展望 ２７ 5.1总结 ２７ 5.2展望 ２８ 参考文献 ２９ 致谢 ３１ 附录 ３２ 　绪论 1.1研究背景和意义 伴随着生产制造模式的进一步变革和管理理念的巨大变化，在全球范围内，现代物流产业越来越受到各个国家和地方的高度重视，因为很多人都认为物流业的潜力不容小