日本安全战略模式分析.pdfVIP

摘 要 本文以日本的政治文化为视角，从日本历史上历次安全战略的“外扩”和“内 缩”中总结出日本“安全战略模式”的规律。通过研究发现日本历次“外扩”失 败后都会 主动迅速地选择“内缩”，并在其安全战略由“显”转“隐”的过程中呈现出功 利性和不讲原则的政治文化特点。 日本安全战略模式的“外扩→内缩→外扩”的规律性变化特点，是日本国内 中央集权和地方氏族政治争夺权力的外在表现。呈现分裂性的地方氏族政治组织 形式是日本政治文化的本质，是日本的常态。为夺回分散于地方的权力，每当非 常态的“岛国危机”出现时，天皇或中央政府通常会通过外侵来加强中央集权。 “外扩”与 “内缩”的转换是日本安全战略模式在军事上的表现。二战后， 经济全球化导致经济安全问题凸显，安全战略表现出综合性，“‘显’与‘隐’ 的转换”的描述比“‘外扩’与‘内缩’的转换”的描述更加适合日本综合性的 安全战略模式变化规律。“隐实力”战略是日本“安全战略模式”规律在 90 年 代由“显”转“隐”的阶段性表现，主要内容是通过隐藏自身的实力来向美国“示 弱”，从而赢得安全的国际环境。研究 “隐实力”战略是本文的重点，它不仅 是研究当前日本安全战略由“隐”转“显”新趋势的前提，而且对超越日本成为 新的世界第二大经济体的中国有很大的借鉴意义。 关键词： “安全战略模式” 隐实力 政治文化 安全观 Abstract This article is focus on the political culture of japan. By analyzing the previous ‘expansion’ or ‘defend’ security strategies of Japan ， to summarize the law of Japans security strategy. Finally we find that japan will transfer their security strategy to ‘defend’ quickly after their ‘expansion strategy’ failed. And during the transfer process, we can always see the political culture appeared utilitarian and unprincipled. Japans security strategy changed regularly which appear as ‘expansion →defend → expansion’. This regular change is the outward manifestation of the struggle by central power and local clan power. The local clan power which has fissility is the nature of the political culture in Japan, is the normal status of Japan. In order to recapture the power distributed to local clan, the central government will strengthen centralization by ‘expansion strategy’ when the abnormal crisis appear. From ‘expansion’ to ‘defend’ is the express of Japan’s security strategy in military. But after the World War II, globalization has high