棉铃虫的发生为害与气候的关系.docVIP

棉铃虫种群数量与当地气候要素的相关分析※ 秦淑莲1, 姜玉英2 , 翟保平3 ,张孝羲3 （1. 青岛农业大学理学与信息学院，青岛 266019；2.全国农业技术推广服务中心测报处，北京 100125；南京农业大学昆虫学系, 农业部病虫监测与治理重点实验室, 南京 210095） 摘 要：计算分析了山东郓城26年 (1974~1999) 和德州22年 (1978~1999) 、 江苏丰县20年 (1980~1999)棉铃虫各代百株累计卵量与当地前期气候要素相关关系。相关分析结果表明各地棉铃虫各代卵量与二月份的气温呈显著或极显著的正相关;丰县棉铃虫二代卵量还与前一年10月份的气温呈显著的负相关。 关键词：棉铃虫；气候要素；相关分析；长期灾变预测 Correlation Analysis Between the population size of Cotton Bollworm and Local Climate Elements QIN Shu-Lian1 , JIANG Yu-Ying2 , ZHAI Bao-Ping3, ZHANG Xiao-Xi3 (1. College of Science and Information Engineering, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao 266019, China; 2.Pest Forecasting Division, National Agro-Technique Extension and Service Center, Beijing 100026, China; 3. Key Laboratory of Pest Monitoring and Management of Chinese Agricultural Ministry, Department of Entomology, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China) Abstract: Based on CBW data and climatic data collected over 26 years (1974~1999) in Yuncheng, Shangdong Province, over 22 years (1978~1999) in Dezhou, Shandong Province, and over 20 years(1980~1999) in Fengxian, Jiangsu Province, the relationship between population density (egg counts) of CBW and local climate elements was analyzed to identify significant (p0.05) correlative key factors. Correlation analysis results show that there were significantly or extremely significantly positive correlation between various generation CWB eggs and monthly mean temperature in the current February and there were significant negative correlation between CWB bollworm second generation amount of eggs in Fengxian, Jiangsu Province and monthly mean temperature of October in last year. Key word: Cotton bollworm; climate elements；correlation analysis; long-range forecast 博士期间（2000－2003年）对棉铃虫的种群数量与各种坏境因子的相关关系进行了全方位的探讨以期寻找用于灾变预警的关键因子［1］。部分工作在昆虫学报［2］和生态学报［3］上发表，在博士研究工作基础上的研究思路和方法已经计算机程序化了，完成了神经网络测报软件［4］和病虫测报统计软件［5］，并且申报了软件著作权。在即将退休之际，将尘封已久的核心部分整理发表，给驾鹤西去的恩师一个交代，也给自己在病虫测报领域的工作画一个句号。 棉铃虫是我国棉区的重要害虫，20世纪90年代全国范围的棉铃虫大暴发，对棉花生产造成了严重的危害。对于此次