bloomberg, standard chartered research lme inventory 伦敦库存.pptVIP

Physical market 现货市场 * The consumption picture消费图谱 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research * Global consumption 全球消费 Asian consumption 亚洲消费 * * Galvanized sheet production镀锌板产量 Galvanized sheet production increased quickly, % y/y 镀锌板产量增加很快， 同比 US galvanized sheet shipments rebound with the exception for summer 除去夏季，美国镀锌板船运回升 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research Nickel – capped by excess capacity镍-产能过剩产生的压力 LME 3-month nickel prices rose 27% ytd 2010 on improving demand from the stainless steel sector and problems at major producers, despite excess stock overhang伦敦三月镍价2010年以来上涨了27%， 受益于不锈钢产业的好转和主要镍生产商的减产。库存仍然巨大。 The supply side is particularly price sensitive, with a substantial reaction likely镍的供应方面对价格十分敏感。镍价上升可能对产量产生刺激作用。 We expect production by Canada to gradually increase in the coming months 我们预计加拿大的产量未来将会逐增加 Nickel pig iron output should ramp up quickly in China, threatening the use of primary nickel 中国的镍生铁产量也会随之上升，从而对电解镍的使用产生抑制作用 With demand picking up, we expect the global nickel supply and demand to be broadly balanced in the next 6 months, with supply slightly outpacing demand towards H2 2011 我们预计未来6个月全球镍的供需仍将保持总体上的平衡，2011年下半年有可能产生温和的供应过剩 Nickel price gains will likely be capped by massive inventory and increasing output 镍价的涨幅将受制于大量库存和产量增加 Price and inventory 价格和库存 Days of use 库存可用天数 Sources: Bloomberg, CRU, Standard Chartered Research * * * Global primary nickel output has grown quicker全球电解镍产量增长加速 Surplus will re-emerge from 2011 2011年将重现供应过剩 Global output and consumption, % y/y 全球产量和消费，同比 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research 供应变化 需求变化 过剩 * * Regional primary nickel output地区电解镍产量 Regional output shows China, Russia, Japan and Canada are the biggest producers， ‘000 tonnes 地区产量显示中国， 俄罗斯，日本和加拿大是生产大国， 千吨 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research * Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research * Stainless steel output experienced seasonal headwinds in Q32010年三季度不锈钢产量遭遇季节性回调 Robust recovery in stainless steel output temporarily halted