全面动员 整体推进 - The Treasury.PPT

注：（1）涉及到了一个统计口径的问题。2004年经济普查以前个体工商户的报酬原来计入劳动者报酬，之后计入了资本报酬，表现在04年劳动者报酬迅速下降，05年有一个反弹，但06、07年又恢复了下降趋势。说明劳动者报酬的下降不仅仅是统计口径问题。 （2） * * 注：居民人均收入这一指标不同于社会消费品零售总额（total retail sales of consumer goods）。不同在于（1）社会消费品零售总额不包括服务；（2）社会消费品零售总额包括政府、企业的消费。 * * CASS Fan He * * CASS Fan He * * CASS Fan He * * CASS Fan He * * CASS Fan He * * CASS Fan He * * CASS Fan He * * CASS Fan He * * CASS Fan He * * CASS Fan He * * CASS Fan He * * * Fan He IWEP, CASS Structural Changes after the Global Financial Crisis： Chinas Perspective Structural imbalances before 2007 Weak consumption vs. Strong investment From 2000-2007, the share of private consumption to GDP decreased 46.4% to 36.0%,the share of Investment to GDP increased from 35.2% to 41.7% Why? (1) The labor income share GDP dropped from 51.4% to 39.7%. (2) Weak social security leads to precautionary saving of households. (3) High saving rate for the enterprises. (4) Inequality in distribution of wealth (5) Financial repression. Structural imbalances before 2007 Underdeveloped service sector vs. very competitive manufacturing The share of service sector in China’s GDP just increased from 39.0% to about 42% during 2000-2007 China’s value added (% of GDP) in manufacturing is much higher than other emerging countries, which is 32.9% in 2007 (Brazil:15.4%, India: 16.0%, Russia: 17.6%) Why？ (1)Globalization and trade liberalization. (2)Free entry in the manufacturing sector but tight control on service sectors. (3) No incentives for the local government to encourage the development of service sector. (4)Price distortion. Structural imbalances before 2007 Heavy reliance on foreign demand The share of exports in GDP increased from 20.8% to 35.2% from 2000 to 2007,and the share of net exports reached 8.8% Then? (1) Trade surplus. (2) More than 3 trillion USD foreign exchange (3) Environment pollution. (4) Energy security. Stimulus Policy after Crisis 2008-11-18 “4 trillion yuan plan”. Destination of funds 1%, Health, Education and