基于证据理论的煤层气储层评价方法 - 《煤田地质与勘探》编辑部.pdfVIP

第38 卷 第4 期 煤田地质与勘探 Vol. 38 No.4 2010 年8 月 COAL GEOLOGY EXPLORATION Aug. 2010 文章编号: 1001-1986(2010)04-0030-04 基于证据理论的煤层气储层评价方法 1 1 2 徐 刚 ，杜文凤 ，冀超辉 (1. 中国矿业大学资源与安全工程学院, 北京 100083 ； 2. 煤炭科学研究总院重庆研究院, 重庆 400037) : 针对我国煤层气储层非均质性强，储层评价中存在着储层参数的随机性、模糊性以及数据 缺乏等许多不确定性问题，将 D-S 证据理论引入煤层气储层的评价中，以解决评价过程中的不确 性问题。应用 D-S 证据理论建立了煤层气储层评价模型，提出了具体的证据理论算法，并根据一 定的决策规则对沁水盆地南部进行了煤储层评价，并优选出了煤层气开发的最有利区。应用结果 表明，该模型较好地解决了评价中的不确定性问题，使评价结果更为可靠和精确。 ：煤层气；D-S 证据理论；储层评价 ：P618.11 ：A DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-1986.2010.03.007 Evaluation method of coalbed methane reservoirs based on evidence theory 1 1 2 XU Gang , DU Wenfeng , JI Chaohui (1. College of Resources and Safety Engineer, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing 100083, China; 2. Chongqing Branch, China Coal Research Institute, Chongqing 400037, China) Abstract: This paper introduced D-S evidence theory in evaluation of coalbed methane reservoirs to solve the un- certainty problem due to randomness, faintness and data lacking of reservoirs parameters in evaluation of CBM reservoirs. The evaluation model of CBM reservoirs is set up based on evidence theory and the detailed arithmetic of evidence theory is brought forward, and according to some decision making rule the coal reservoir in south of Qinshui Basin has been evaluated, and the best favorable area for CBM development has been affirmed. The results show that the model can solve the problem of uncertainty and make evaluation results more reliable and precise. Key words: coal bed methane; D-S evidence theory