金融发展导致了经济增长么？一个向量自回归方法.pdfVIP

Applied Economics, 2005, 37, 1353–1367 Does financial development ‘lead’ economic growth? A vector auto-regression appraisal Jordan Shan Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, and School of Applied Economics, Victoria University, Melbourne, Victoria 8001, Australia E-mail: Jordan.shan@.au Using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach, several hypotheses are re-examined suggested by the literature concerning the relationship between financial development and economic growth, investment and productivity. The models use quarterly time-series data from ten OECD countries and China. Innovation accounting or variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis is applied to examine interrelation- ships between variables in the VAR system and, therefore, differs from the more usual Granger causality approach. In particular, it examines the relationship between financial development proxied by total credit. At best, weak support is found for the hypothesis that financial development ‘leads’ economic growth. I. Introduction only a few of the countries surveyed and, therefore, that no general conclusions could be drawn. This paper sheds further light on the much-debated Recent events in Asia have cast further doubt on question of whether financial development leads, in the hypothesis. The rapid economic growth of the a Granger causality sense, economic growth? This ‘Asian Tigers’ has decreased (and in some negative is an important question because it assists in an growth has occurred) following the Asian ‘meltdown’ evaluation of the extent to which the financial dereg- yet this slowing of growth was preceded by consider-