JNU09 概率推理概要1.pptx

Bayesian Networks;Probabilistic Agent;Problem;Purpose of Bayesian Networks;Other Names;Bayesian Networks;Example;Example;A Simple Belief Network;Assigning Probabilities to Roots;Conditional Probability Tables;Conditional Probability Tables;What the BN Means;Calculation of Joint Probability;What The BN Encodes;What The BN Encodes;Structure of BN;Construction of BN;Suppose we choose the ordering M, J, A, B, E P(J | M) = P(J)? ;Suppose we choose the ordering M, J, A, B, E P(J | M) = P(J)? No P(A | J, M) = P(A | J)? P(A | J, M) = P(A)? ;Suppose we choose the ordering M, J, A, B, E P(J | M) = P(J)? No P(A | J, M) = P(A | J)? P(A | J, M) = P(A)? No P(B | A, J, M) = P(B | A)? P(B | A, J, M) = P(B)?;Suppose we choose the ordering M, J, A, B, E P(J | M) = P(J)? No P(A | J, M) = P(A | J)? P(A | J, M) = P(A)? No P(B | A, J, M) = P(B | A)? Yes P(B | A, J, M) = P(B)? No P(E | B, A ,J, M) = P(E | A)? P(E | B, A, J, M) = P(E | A, B)?;Suppose we choose the ordering M, J, A, B, E P(J | M) = P(J)? No P(A | J, M) = P(A | J)? P(A | J, M) = P(A)? No P(B | A, J, M) = P(B | A)? Yes P(B | A, J, M) = P(B)? No P(E | B, A ,J, M) = P(E | A)? No P(E | B, A, J, M) = P(E | A, B)? Yes;Example summary;Compactness;Cond. Independence Relations;Set E of evidence variables that are observed, e.g., {JohnCalls,MaryCalls} Query variable X, e.g., Burglary, for which we would like to know the posterior probability distribution P(X|E);Inference Patterns;Types Of Nodes On A Path;Independence Relations In BN;Independence Relations In BN;Independence Relations In BN;Independence Relations In BN;BN Inference;BN Inference;Inference Ex. 2;Variable Elimination;A More Complex Example;V;V;V;V;V;V;V;Variable Elimination;Dealing with evidence;Dealing with Evidence ;Dealing with Evidence ;Given evidence V = t, S = f, D = t Compute P(L, V = t, S = f, D = t ) Initial factors, after setting evidence: Eliminating x, we get ;Dealing with Evidence ;Dealing with Evidence ;Dealing with Evidence ;Variable Elimination Algorithm