浅谈通向破产之路_希腊债务局势前景分析_201107.pdf

2011.07 通向破产之路——希腊债务局势前景分析 全球宏观经济 通向破产之路——希腊债务局势前景分析 【摘要】09 年希腊爆发主权债务危机以来，欧盟及国际货币基金组织(下称 魏军 IMF)采取了相关措施对希腊进行了援助，并顺应需要建立了欧洲金融稳定机制 FX168 财经集团高级金融分析师 等安全网，为希腊等债务负担沉重的欧元区国家保驾护航。 Wei.jun @ 但经过一年多的时间，希腊债务局势并未如预期般出现好转并再次出现债务违 陈诗 约风险，希腊债务问题再次成为市场关注的焦点。 FX168 财经集团资深编译 Chen.shi@ 目前希腊经济延续疲弱态势，债务结构失衡。尽管希腊国会以微弱多数通过了5 年撙节计划，为获得欧盟及IMF 新一笔援助资年金扫清了最后的障碍。但希腊 牛国春 在未来几年当中将面对更为严峻的债务形势和偿债压力，希腊在2015 年左右将 FX168 财经集团资深编译 面临全面重组债务甚至国家破产的风险，届时全球金融系统将面临新一次考验。 Niu.guochun@ 【关键词】债务重组 破产 经济衰退 目 录 近忧 ·································································· 2 国债收益率 ····························································································································· 2 债务结构 ······························································································································· 3 财政状况及还款能力 ············································································································ 5 远虑 ·································································· 6 经济状况堪忧 ······················································································································ 6 双紧缩政策雪上加霜 ········································································································· 8 希腊的前途 ··························································· 9 希腊债务危机重燃无疑成为近期汇市的焦点事件，引发市场的剧烈波动。最终，希腊总理帕潘德里欧提出的 5 年期 紧缩计划6 月29 日在国会以155:138 的票数获得通过，为取得国际融资避免违约清除重大障碍。希腊财长得以昂首 挺胸地参加周末即将举行的欧元区财长会议，为希腊争取新一轮援助方案。希腊债务这匹脱缰野马似乎再次回到正 常的轨道上。但是，即使新一轮援助方案顺利达成，也仅是欧元区“以时间换空间”策略的进一步延续，希腊债务问题 并未得到根本性的改善，希腊依然面临着自己的近忧与远虑。 FX168 财经集团