new-2015SCM第2章-Joyce.ppt

More than One Facility at Each Stage Follow the same approach Echelon inventory at the warehouse is the inventory at the warehouse, plus all of the inventory in transit to and in stock at each of the retailers. Similarly, the echelon inventory position at the warehouse is the echelon inventory at the warehouse, plus those items ordered by the warehouse that have not yet arrived minus all items that are backordered. Warehouse Echelon Inventory FIGURE 2-14: The warehouse echelon inventory 2.6 Practical Issues Periodic inventory review. Tight management of usage rates, lead times, and safety stock. Reduce safety stock levels. Introduce or enhance cycle counting practice. ABC approach. Shift more inventory or inventory ownership to suppliers. Quantitative approaches. FOCUS: not reducing costs but reducing inventory levels. Significant effort in industry to increase inventory turnover Inventory Turnover Ratios for Different Manufacturers Industry Upper quartile Median Lower quartile Electronic components and accessories 8.1 4.9 3.3 Electronic computers 22.7 7.0 2.7 Household audio and video equipment 6.3 3.9 2.5 Paper Mills 11.7 8.0 5.5 Industrial chemicals 14.1 6.4 4.2 Bakery products 39.7 23.0 12.6 Books: Publishing and printing 7.2 2.8 1.5 2.7 Forecasting RULES OF FORECASTING The forecast is always wrong. The longer the forecast horizon, the worse the forecast. Aggregate forecasts are more accurate. Utility of Forecasting Part of the available tools for a manager Despite difficulties with forecasts, it can be used for a variety of decisions Number of techniques allow prudent use of forecasts as needed Techniques Judgment Methods Sales-force composite Experts panel Delphi method Market research/survey Time Series Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Trends Regression Holt’s method Seasonal patterns – Seasonal decomposition Trend + Seasonality – Winter’s Method Causal Methods The Most Appropriate Technique(s) Purpose of the forecast How will the forec