台湾生技制药业的展望概要1.ppt

台灣生技製藥業的展望 Definition of each section Is Continued Reliance On Blockbuster Drugs Enough? Sensitivity to Changing Key Variables in Pipeline Model 專業藥廠的經營模式_3 models Rationality of R/D Market Dilemma – Taiwan pharma Industry 通路的貪婪永不停止 全民保險的支出cap住 NCE / Breakthrough 產品的上市門檻遙不可及 於BCG marketing 中的 (低成長市場中尋求高成長市佔率) 情境推演 2005 2006 2007 HP 1050E 1075E 1107E R 750E 300E 770E 305E 797E 312E A 代表 patent / brand product B 代表 generic product Trend of Taiwan Pharma–Industry 過度的Pharma- economic e.g. 1050 E? 100E 產業與醫療保險的平衡 通路的貪婪永不停止; (bargain power 增強) 生活和生命品質的要求逐漸偏高 Limitation of Pharma–Industry US 2E ~ 8E的高NCE 門檻很難突破 醫療保險很難購買; US 2E~8E NCE在Margin Improve 上的成果 台灣短期內很難見到有「重量型的RD NCE」上市 Taiwan Market Size 太小 Taiwan Bio-Infrastructure 仍在萌芽階段 The Trend of Taiwan Pharmaceutical Taiwan Market Trend Top 3-10 generic companies can survive only Few generic companies could build competitive advantages or unique capabilities and survive Top 20-30 multinational companies can survive in Taiwan Lot of specialty companies could build competitive unique advantages and survive Top 100-200 generic companies can survive in China China will become the fifth-largest pharmaceutical market with the estimated revenues of over USD24 billion by 2010. (3X of current size) (source: BCG group) Multinational companies can fill these needs and survive Lots of generic companies with competitive advantages or unique capabilities can survive Focusing the head of Chinese operations on assessing and shaping local abilities are essential Some specialty Pharma companies with competitive advantages or unique capabilities can survive Only Taiwanese can do successful business in China market Building the abilities to support Chinese operation with world-class regulatory specialists and marketers can win Taiwanese Pharma i