南方山区线路覆冰在线监测数据特征分析与预测模型研究.pdf

第43 卷 第23 期 电力系统保护与控制 Vol.43 No.23 2015 年 12 月 1 日 Power System Protection and Control Dec. 1, 2015 南方山区线路覆冰在线监测数据特征分析与预测模型研究 1 2 1 黄宵宁 ，许 瑞 ，许家浩 (1.南京工程学院电力学院，江苏 南京 211167；2.国网浙江杭州市萧山区供电公司，浙江 杭州 311200) 摘要：我国南方山区由于地形气候的影响，易在冬季导致输电线路严重覆冰，进而给电网的安全运行带来巨大的 挑战。因此通过对线路覆冰研究，总结出南方山区覆冰数据中的规律和存在问题，其重要性不言而喻。先从覆冰 在线监测系统的原理入手，并针对南方某典型山区覆冰在线监测数据开展导线覆冰特征定量分析，总结出该山区 在不同微气象条件下，各个气象参数组合对覆冰的影响的规律。最后，提出一种基于模糊逻辑和神经网络建立输 电线路覆冰组合预测模型的方法。 关键词：在线监测；覆冰计算模型；关键影响因素；模糊逻辑 Analysis of the characteristics for on-line monitoring data and research of the forecast model of the line icing in southern mountain area 1 2 1 HUANG Xiaoning , XU Rui , XU Jiahao (1. School of Electric Power Engineering, Nanjing Institute of Technology, Nanjing 211167, China; 2. Xiaoshan Power Supply Company of State Grid Zhejiang Hangzhou Electric Power Company, Hangzhou 311200, China) Abstract: The transmission line is easy to ice severely in winter because of the influence of terrain climate in southern mountain area, which brings great challenge to the safe operation of power system. Therefore, it is important to discover the law and to find the defect of the icing data in this area through researching transmission line icing. Firstly, the principle of on-line monitoring system for transmission line icing is discussed. On this basis, the characteristic of icing is analyzed based on the on-line monitoring data. Moreove