大气中浓度的空间表征方法研究-环境监测管理与技术.DOC

长沙市大气中PM2.5浓度分布的空间插值方法比较( 刘妍月李军成 （湖南人文科技学院 数学系，湖南 娄底 417000） 摘 要：在地统计学和地理信息系统支持下，采用普通Kriging、反距离加权、趋势面、Cokriging插值和基于反距离加权的克里金插值方法对长沙市某时刻的PM2.5浓度进行空间插值比较研究。研究结果表明，反距离加权和趋势面插值的结果都与实际情况相差较远；普通Kriging和Cokriging插值能够反映出PM2.5浓度分布的一定的空间结构，但精度还有待提高，且运行速度较慢；前4种方法效果不好的主要原因是因为长沙市PM2.5浓度检测站站点稀少。基于反距离加权的克里金插值方法是结合了两种模型优点的综合性方法，其结果较为正确地分析了长沙市PM2.5浓度分布的特征，误差远小于其它方法,且具有平滑性好、运行速度相对较快等优点。 关键词：地统计学；PM2.5浓度；Kriging插值；反距离加权插值；趋势面 Comparison Study of Spatial Interpolation Method of PM2.5 concentration in the atmosphere over Changsha City Liu Yanyue, Li Juncheng (Department of Mathematics, Hunan University of Humanities, Science and Technology, Loudi 417000, China) Abstract: With the support of geo-statistics and geographic information systems, the spatial interpolation methods of ordinary Kriging, inverse distance weight, trend surface, Co-kriging and Kriging interpolation based on inverse distance to a power method are utilized for the comparison study on spatial interpolation of PM2.5 concentration in the Changsha City. The following preliminary conclusions can be gained. The results of inverse distance weighted and trend surface interpolation is far from the actual situation; ordinary Kriging and Cokriging interpolation can reflect the spatial structure of the distribution of PM2.5 concentration, but the accuracy still needs to be improved, and the running speed is slow; the main reason for the former 4 methods’ effect is not good because of the rare of the air quality monitoring station in Changsha City. Kriging interpolation method based on inverse distance weighted is combined with the comprehensive advantages of the two models, the results are correctly analyzed the characteristics of the distribution of PM2.5 concentration in Changsha City, the error is much less than other methods, has good smoothness and running speed is relatively fast. Key words: geo-statistics; PM2.5 concentration; Kriging interpolation; inverse distance to a power; trend surface 1 引言 随着社会经济的快速发展、城市化进程的加快以及