用低频天气图方法进行延伸期预报的探索 - 中国气象局.pdfVIP

气象科技 进展 用低频天气图方法进行延伸期预报的探索 1, 2 2 2 3 孙国武 李震坤 信飞 何金海 （1 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实 验室，兰州 730020；2 上海市气候中心，上海 200030；3 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京 210044） 摘要：在应用低频天气图制作上海地区5年（2008—2012年）夏季强降水过程延伸期业务预报的基础上，进一步探索了 低频天气图方法在使用过程中的技术规则、技术要点和技术方法。就低频天气图的计算和绘制、天气关键区的划分、分 析低频天气系统等技术规范和预测模型的建立等应用中的问题进行了讨论。以强降水过程为例，论述了低频天气图使用 方法及其依据的天气学原理。 关键词：低频天气图，低频天气系统，强降水天气过程，延伸期预报 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2013.01.001 Exploration of the Low-Frequency Synoptic Map for Extended-Range Forecast 1, 2 2 2 3 Sun Guowu , Li Zhenkun , Xin Fei , He Jinhai (1 Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology/Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of CMA, Lanzhou 730020 2 Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai 200030 3 Nanjing University of Information Science Technology, Nanjing 210044) Abstract: Based on the application of the low-frequency synoptic map (LFSM) for extended-range forecast of summer strong precipitation process in Shanghai for five years (2008—2012), this paper further explores the technical rules, technical points and technical methods of LFSM. The main contents include how to calculate and draw LFSM, the technical principles for the key regions division of LFSM, the technical rules for analysis of the low-frequency weather systems and the foundation of the prediction model. Finally, with an instance of one strong precipitation process, the usage and weather principles are discussed for reference of the related weather operational departments during the spread of LFSM. Keyword: low-frequency synoptic map, low-frequency weather system, strong pre