基于状态概率转移的sirs 病毒传播模型及其临界值分析 - 计算机科学.pdf

Vo 1. 43 No. 6A 第 43 卷第6A 期 计算机科学 2016 年 6 月 Computer Science June 2016 基于状态概率转移的 SIRS 病毒传播模型及其临界值分析 顾海俊1 蒋国平2 夏玲玲1 (南京邮电大学计算机学院 南京 210003)1 (南京邮电大学自动化学院 南京 210003)2 摘 要针对SIRS( Susceptible-Infected-Removed-Susceptible)病毒传播模型，利用状态转移概率的方法，通过计算节 点处于各个状态的概率来研究 SIRS 病毒传播过程。首先建立状态概率方程组，描述各个时刻各个节点处于易感染 态、感染态、免疫态的概率，通过稳态分析理论推导网络的病毒传播临界值;然后利用蒙特卡罗方法，对均匀网络和非 均匀网络的病毒传播临界值进行分析和仿真。结果表明，相对于传统的平均场方法，基于状态概率方程纽模型求得的 传播临界值更加接近真实蒙特卡罗值，并且与免疫丧失率无关。 关键词 传播临界值，概率方程组，SIRS 模型，平均场方法 中固法分类号 N945 文献标识码 A SIRS Epidemic Model and its Threshold ßased on State Transition Probability GU Hai-jun1 ]IANG Guo-ping2 XIA Ling-ling1 (School of Computer Science and Technology ,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications ,Nanjing Z10003 ,China)1 (School of Automation ,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications ,Nanjing 210003 ,China)2 Abstract For SIRS (Susceptible-Infected-Removed-Susceptible) epidemic model ,we used the method of state transition probability to study the SIRS epidemic process through calculating the probability in each state over time. First ,we es tablished state probability equations to describe the probability in susceptible state ,infection state and immune state of each node at each moment. Then ,we derived the epidemic threshold of SIRS model by the theory of steady state analy- sis. Finally ,using the Monte Carlo method ,we analyzed and simulated the epidemic threshold in both homogeneous net work and heterogeneous network. Compared with the traditional mean-field method ,the simulation results show that the threshold obtained by the sta