0 °C 积温计算的不确定性 - 兰州大学.PDF

兰州大学学报: 自然科学版, 2017, 53(2) / 4 月 Journal of Lanzhou University ：Natural Sciences，2017 ，53(2) / April ≥0 °C 积温计算的不确定性 1, 2 1 1 1 师银芳 , 赵 军 , 李传华 , 杜怀玉 1. 西北师范大学 地理与环境科学学院, 兰州 730070 2.甘肃省遥感重点实验室, 兰州 730000 摘 要：利用1961-2010 年全国723 个气象台站的日平均气温、月平均气温数据, 分别计算≥0 ℃的 积温, 采用差值法得到积温偏差, 分析了其空间分布特征及与月积温偏差的关系. 结果表明, 基于不 同起始数据获取的年积温存在一定的不确定性和明显的时空差异, 主要表现出集聚性、一致性和异 质性等空间分布特征. 年积温不确定性与纬经度、海拔密切相关, 且纬度与海拔的影响高于经度, 秦 岭-淮河及横断山脉一线为年积温偏差10 ℃·d 的分界线. 月积温不确定性随月份的增大呈U 型分 布, 11月最大、7 月最小; 年积温偏差贡献率范围存在明显差异, 12月最大, 5 月最小. 关键词：积温; 不确定性; 时空特征; 日平均气温; 月平均气温 中图分类号：P423 文献标识码：A 文章编号: 0455-2059(2017)02-0213-07 DOI: 10.13885/j.issn.0455-2059.2017.02.010 Uncertainty of ≥0 ℃℃integrated temperature calculation 1, 2 1 1 1 Shi Yin-fang , Zhao Jun , Li Chuan-hua , Du Huai-yu 1. College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China 2. Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000, China Abstract: Using the different starting data, daily average temperature and monthly average temperature of 723 meteorological stations in China during the year 1961-2010, the annual integrated temperature (IT) above 0 ℃ was calculated respectively. According to the two different integrated temperatures, the integrated difference of which was obtained, and the spatial distribution of IT deviation and the rela- tionship between annual IT deviation and monthly IT deviation were analyzed. The results showed that: there was a gradient of uncertainty for IT calculated using daily and monthly temperatures, and there were significant spatial and temporal differences, mainl