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对照日本经济成长经历看今天的中国(Comparing Japans economic growth experience to todays China)
对照日本经济成长经历看今天的中国(Comparing Japans economic growth experience to todays China)
Comparing Japans economic growth experience to todays China
(2011-04-08, 19:20:48)
Classification: economic theory in China
Chinas economy, from the perspective of the world economic chart, is a latecomer country. Predict the trend of Chinas economy in the next few years with the experience of Japan forty years ago.
Forty years later this year, we Chinese people back to Japan that year, and felt the same. In 1973, Japans nominal economic growth rate was as high as 21.76%. In 1974, it was the last year of Japans rapid economic development, reaching 19.33%, and Japans economic development reached its peak. If we look at the development of the past 15 years in 1959-1974 years, we will be surprised to find that the Japanese economy has grown from 13 trillion and 190 billion yen (the current price) to 134 trillion and 240 billion yen, with an average annual growth rate of 16.7%. Almost the same as China in previous years. After 1974, the Japanese economy seemed to brake suddenly. Growth was only 10.49% in 1975, rebounding to 12.3% in 1976, down to 11.4% in 1977, 10.1% in 1978, and no more than 10% since then.
1974 is inflation year, read economics must read this period of history. Although nominal economic growth rate was high in 1974, the actual growth rate of the year was indeed negative! Only -1.23%. Moreover, in 1974, it was the year of decline for the major capitalist countries in the west. This year, the United States economic growth rate is also -1.5%. People today look at the 1973-1975 year as a Western recession, as if they were todays world.
In October 1973, the fourth Middle East War broke out, and crude oil prices rose by 3 times in two months from 3 US dollars to 12 US dollars. Although it was adjusted later, it had reached $41 in 1980, and it didnt return to $10 until 1984. It was also the surge in prices of crude oil and resources, the rising cost of global economy and the sharp
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