A hierarchical model for association rule mining …（关联规则挖掘的分层模型u2026）.pdfVIP

Submitted to the Annals of Applied Statistics arXiv: math.PR/0000000 A HIERARCHICAL MODEL FOR ASSOCIATION RULE MINING OF SEQUENTIAL EVENTS: AN APPROACH TO AUTOMATED MEDICAL SYMPTOM PREDICTION By Tyler H. McCormick∗ , Cynthia Rudin† and David Madigan∗ ∗ † Columbia University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology In many healthcare settings, patients visit healthcare profession- als periodically and report multiple medical conditions, or symptoms, at each encounter. We propose a statistical modeling technique, called the Hierarchical Association Rule Model (HARM), that predicts a patient’s possible future symptoms given the patient’s current and past history of reported symptoms. The core of our technique is a Bayesian hierarchical model for selecting predictive association rules (such as “symptom 1 and symptom 2 → symptom 3 ”) from a large set of candidate rules. Because this method “borrows strength” using the symptoms of many similar patients, it is able to provide predic- tions specialized to any given patient, even when little information about the patient’s history of symptoms is available. 1. Introduction. The emergence of large-scale medical record databases presents exciting opportunities for data-based personalized medicine. Predic- tion lies at the heart of personalized medicine and in this paper we propose a statistical model for predicting patient-level sequences of medical symp- toms. We draw on new approaches for predicting the next event withi