assessing reserve adequacy - imf（评估储备充足u2014u2014国际货币基金组织(imf)）.pdf

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Assessing Reserve Adequacy Prepared by Monetary and Capital Markets, Research, and Strategy, Policy, and Review Departments In consultation with other departments Approved by Reza Moghadam, Jonathan D. Ostry and Robert Sheehy February 14, 2011 Contents Page Executive Summary 3 I. Overview 4 Motivation 4 Scope 5 Approach 6 Outline 8 II. Stylized Facts and Existing Approaches for Emerging Markets 9 A. Trends in reserve accumulation and experience in crises 9 B. Existing approaches to reserve adequacy 12 C. Cost of reserves 18 D. Reserves management and institutional arrangements 19 III. Analytical Approaches for Emerging Markets 22 A. Sources of balance of payments risk 22 B. Derivation of the proposed reserve-adequacy metric 24 C. Judgment in application 27 D. A cross-country regression approach to reserve adequacy 28 E. Application of the EM frameworks 30 2 IV. Reserves in LICs: Combating Current Account Shocks 33 A. Trends before and during the crisis 33 B. A new approach for LICs 36 C. Application of the metric to LICs 41 V. Advanced economies: do reserves matter? 42 VI. Conclusions and Issues for Discussion 45 Issues for discussion 45 Boxes 1. Definition of Reserves 11 2. Precautionary Models of Reserve Accumulation 14 3. Model-based Approaches to Reserve Adequacy 16 4. Managing External Vulnerability