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the detection of earnings manipulation（利润操纵的检测）
The Detection of Earnings Manipulation
Messod D. Beneish*
June 1999
Comments Welcome
* Associate Professor, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, 1309 E. 10th Street
Bloomington, Indiana 47405, dbeneish@, 812 855-2628. I have benefited from the
comments of Vic Bernard, Jack Ciesielski, Linda DeAngelo, Martin Fridson, Cam Harvey, David
Hsieh, Charles Lee, Eric Press, Bob Whaley, Mark Zmijewski, workshop participants at Duke,
Maryland, Michigan, and Université du Québec à Montréal. I am indebted to David Hsieh for his
generous econometric advice and the use of his estimation subroutines. I thank Julie Azoulay,
Pablo Cisilino and Melissa McFadden for expert assistance.
Abstract
The Detection of Earnings Manipulation
The paper profiles a sample of earnings manipulators, identifies their distinguishing
characteristics, and estimates a model for detecting manipulation. The model’s variables are
designed to capture either the effects of manipulation or preconditions that may prompt firms to
engage in such activity. The results suggest a systematic relation between the probability of
manipulation and financial statement variables. The evidence is consistent with accounting data
being useful in detecting manipulation and assessing the reliability of accounting earnings.
In holdout sample tests, the model identifies approximately half of the companies involved
in earnings manipulation prior to public discovery. Because companies discovered manipulating
earnings see their stocks plummet in value, the model can be a useful screening device for
investing professionals. While the model is easily implemented-- the data can be extracted from an
annual report--, the screening results require further investigation t
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