the effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the colorado river basin（气候变化的影响在科罗拉多河流域的水文和水资源）.pdfVIP

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the effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the colorado river basin（气候变化的影响在科罗拉多河流域的水文和水资源）.pdf

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the effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the colorado river basin（气候变化的影响在科罗拉多河流域的水文和水资源）

BAK652 THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN NIKLAS S. CHRISTENSEN, ANDREW W. WOOD, NATHALIE VOISIN, DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER and RICHARD N. PALMER Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 164 Wilcox Hall, P.O. Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2700, U.S.A. E-mail: dennisl@u.washington.edu Abstract. The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin are assessed by comparing simulated hydrologic and water resources scenarios derived from downscaled climate simulations of the U.S. Department of Energy/National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to scenarios driven by observed historical (1950–1999) climate. PCM climate scenarios include an ensemble of three 105-year future climate simulations based on projected ‘business-as-usual’ (BAU) greenhouse gas emissions and a con- trol climate simulation based on static 1995 greenhouse gas concentrations. Downscaled transient temperature and precipitation sequences were extracted from PCM simulations, and were used to drive the Variable Inﬁltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model to produce corresponding streamﬂow sequences. Results for the BAU scenarios were summarized into Periods 1, 2, and 3 (2010–2039, 2040–2069, 2070–2098). Average annual temperature changes for the Colorado River basin were 0.5 ◦C warmer for control climate, and 1.0, 1.7, and 2.4 ◦C warmer for Periods 1–3, respectively, relative to the historical climate. Basin-average annual precipitation for the control climate was slightly (1%) less than for observed histori