the performance of agricultural market advisory services in marketing wheat（农业市场营销咨询服务性能的小麦）.pdfVIP

Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat the Market? by Scott H. Irwin, Thomas E. Jackson, and Darrel L. Good Suggested citation format: Irwin, S. H., T. E. Jackson, and D. L. Good. 1999. “Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat the Market?” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. Chicago, IL. [/nccc134]. Do Agricultural Market Advisory Services Beat the Market? Scott H. Irwin, Thomas E. Jackson and Darrel L. Good1 Abstract The purpose of this paper is to address two basic perfoffilance questions for market advisory services: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperfoffil an appropriate market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services exhibit persistence in their perfOffilance from year-to-year? Data on corn and soybean net price received for advisory services, as reported by the AgMAS Project, are available for the 1995, 1996 and 1997 marketing years. Perfoffilance test results suggest that, on average, market advisory services beat the market for the 1995 through 1997 corn and soybean crops. Possible explanations for this result include: i) a unique time period in corn and soybean markets, ii) inefficient commodity markets, iii) the skillfulness of advisory services or iv) a return to risk. The predictability results provide little evidence that advisory service pricing perfoffilance can be predicted from year-to-year. When services are grouped by perfoffilance quantile, some evidence of predictability is found for the