血吸虫传播模型The transmission models - 中国气候变化信息网.PPT

* 不同气候变化情景下中国血吸虫病传播的范围与强度预测 Projection of transmission scale and intensity of schistosomiasis in China under climate change scenarios 杨 坤1 潘 婕2 杨国静1 李石柱3 许吟隆2 周晓农3* 1 江苏省血吸虫病防治研究所，无锡 214064；2 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/农业部农业环境与气候变化重点开放实验室，北京　10008；3 中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所，上海 200025 内容/Content 模型构建的生物学基础 The biological parameter 气候变化预测模型 Climate change scenarios 模型的构建 Modeling building 预测图 Prediction maps Distribution of schistosomiasis in China in 2006 血吸虫与钉螺的生物学参数The biological parameters of Schistosoma japonicum and Oncomelania hupensis 钉螺发育积温计算Accumulated degree-days for O.hupensis The lowest temperature for snail death = -2.72 ℃, The temperature for 50% of snail presenting hibernation = 5.87 ℃ The highest temperature for snail death = 42.13 ℃ The highest temperature for snail presenting aestivation at 40 ℃ - 92.22% snail ADDO.h= 3846.28±32.59 (℃ · d) Tmin of snail death Tmax of snail death T0 for snail development Ta for snail aestivation Accumulated days (D) accumulated degree-days (ADD) The lowest temperature for S.j. development in Oncomelania snail = 15.35±1.30℃。 ADDS.j= 842.95±70.71 ( ℃ · d) The lowest temperature for S.j. developing in snail (T0) In the endemic region Accumulated days (D) accumulated degree-days (ADD) 血吸虫发育积温计算Accumulated degree-days for S. japonicum 气候变化情景模型→气候因子数据 climate change scenarios →data 选用由英国Hadley中心开发的区域气候模型PRECIS(Predict Regional Climate for Impact Assessment) 。 分别选取中-高气体排放(A2)和中-低气体排放(B2)两种气体排放情景，A2情景为CO2约1 %的高排放， B2情景为CO2约0. 5 %的低排放。 在两种气体排放情景下，以区域气候模型(RCM)的外部趋动，模拟出我国区域内50Km×50Km网格的逐日最高气温、最低气温、降水、辐射等20余项气象指标，其中RCM模拟的1961-1990年历年的逐日最高气温、最低气温、降水和辐射等气象信息为基准时段（BS），代表当前的基础气候数据。 血吸虫传播模型 The transmission models 模型的构建主要考虑血吸虫病的传播媒介-钉螺与病原体-血吸虫两方面，分别以钉螺温度-生存模型和血吸虫扩散模型，预测钉螺分布区域变化和血吸虫传播指数变化。 The transmission models including the two apartments, namely transmission scale and transmission index models, predict the change of potential transmission area and transmission index. 钉螺温度-生存模型  t