城镇化是中国经济再增长的动力还是阻力（Is urbanization a driving force or a drag on Chinas economic growth）.doc

城镇化是中国经济再增长的动力还是阻力（Is urbanization a driving force or a drag on Chinas economic growth） Urbanization: the driving force or resistance of Chinas economic growth? The fall in economic growth today, many people are thinking about Chinese sustained economic growth in the next 10 years, the engine, the urbanization has been the mainstream view is the lasting power of China or future economic growth, the greatest potential for expanding domestic demand, some economists even consider that urbanization is to make economic Chinese the next 20 years the average annual growth rate of potential the main reason for the 8%. In the 10 years before, we recognized Chinese stimulating economic growth but the three big power: the worlds factory, urbanization and consumption upgrade, therefore, need from the quantitative analysis and comparison in terms of country economic development objective evaluation of urbanization effect. From the countryside to see the city: China has entered the late stage of Urbanization The current urbanization rate China official is 51%, which is calculated by the resident population concept, many scholars even think that if the household population urbanization rate is only about 30% of the two data indicate that Chinese road of urbanization can last at least 20 years (that is, the urbanization rate reached 70%). But if we look at the level of urbanization in a different way, go to the countryside to investigate and look at Chinas rate of rural areas, and we will find that the population of young people in rural areas has been very small, while the urbanization rate of =1- is rural. If the rate of rural areas is very low, does that mean higher urbanization rates? The author found that the number of officially employed people in the first industry, mainly engaged in agricultural work, was greatly overestimated. For example, in 2011, the employment rate of the first industry in the National Bureau of statistics was 266 million. After the deduction of 3 milli