中瑞金融经济复苏VS产能过剩 铝价震荡区间抬升（Sino Swiss financial economic recovery, VS overcapacity, aluminum shock range rise）.doc

中瑞金融经济复苏VS产能过剩 铝价震荡区间抬升（Sino Swiss financial economic recovery, VS overcapacity, aluminum shock range rise） Sino Swiss financial: economic recovery, VS overcapacity, aluminum shock range rise First, 2009 Market review: In 2009, under the impetus of the gradual recovery of the global economy, the domestic and foreign aluminum prices bottomed out, showing a trend upward shock. The first half of the year, domestic aluminum production, the state and local storage, cost factors such as Dumbledore support, China factors underpin prices bottomed out; after the three quarter, affected by the economic recovery, the recovery of the downstream industry of aluminum, aluminum demand is expected to rise, the aluminum industry out of the wave of significant compensatory growth market. At the end of December, the Shanghai aluminum 11000 yuan from the end of December 2008 rose to 16500 yuan a month, LME3 aluminum from the end of December 2008 of $1500 to $2250, rose about 50%. As the aluminum industry overcapacity and huge inventory, making aluminum prices rose significantly lower than 09 years of copper and zinc. Two. Basic factor analysis: (1) macro factor analysis 1, Chinas economy continues to rise In 09 years, in response to the international financial crisis, China adopted a massive fiscal stimulus and monetary policy, successfully reversing the 08 years since the fourth quarter of the rapid economic decline, before the three quarter GDP growth quarter by quarter rise, a single quarter growth rate was 6.1%, 7.9% and 8.9%, to achieve steady economic recovery. Judging from Chinas macro-economic climate index and other leading indicators, Chinas economy is now rebounding. The macroeconomic index has gone back above the historical average, while the consensus index and the lagging index have picked up gradually. The PMI index rebounded gradually at the end of last year, with a steady gain of more than 50, indicating a good recovery in Chinas economy. Can clearly reflect the micro