影响汇率波动的因素（Factors affecting exchange rate volatility）.docVIP

影响汇率波动的因素（Factors affecting exchange rate volatility） Factors affecting exchange rate volatility There are four basic factors that affect the fluctuation of exchange rate: First, the balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves. The so-called international balance of payments is the sum of the total monetary income of a country and the total amount of monetary expenditure paid to other countries. If the total monetary income is greater than the total amount of expenditure, there will be a balance of payments surplus; otherwise, the balance of payments deficit. The balance of payments situation has a direct impact on changes in the exchange rate of a country. An international balance of payments surplus would raise the countrys currency, the foreign exchange rate, whereas the countrys currency exchange rate would fall; Second, interest rates. Interest rate, as a basic reflection of a countrys borrowing conditions, plays a decisive role in the fluctuation of exchange rate. Interest rates have a direct impact on the international capital flow, high interest rate countries capital inflows, low interest rate countries, capital outflows, capital flows will cause the change of the relationship between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, which have an impact on the foreign exchange rate fluctuations. In general, a rise in interest rates in one country will result in an appreciation of the countrys currency and, conversely, the devaluation of the countrys currency; Third, inflation. Generally speaking, inflation will lead to a decline in the national currency exchange rate, and inflation easing will make the exchange rate go up. The value of the currency, inflation effect and purchasing power, will cause the export competitiveness weakened, imports increase, will cause a psychological impact on the foreign exchange market, weaken the credit position of currency in the international market. These three aspects of the impact will lead to devaluation of the c