风能资源气候学数值模拟评估的分型方法研究 何晓凤 周荣卫 朱蓉 HE .DOCVIP

风能资源气候学数值模拟评估的分型方法研究 何晓凤 周荣卫朱蓉 中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081 CMA Public Meteorological Service Center, Beijing 100081, China 摘要： 为了实现时间跨度较长（2030年）的风能资源数值模拟，本文建立了一种新的分型方案，采用地面和探空观测资料针对每种随机抽取5%的进行真实算例的数值模拟。/s，相对误差均低于6.50%；挑选典型日各风向频率值与30年结果之间的相对误差平均值为0.28%~0.48%，风速频率相对误差的平均值为0.09%~0.54%。2）通过模拟区域分型站点以外探空气象站的风向频率和风速频率的对比检验发现：沿海地区风向频率误差为0.27%~0.63%，风速频率误差为0.14%~0.49%；内陆复杂山地风向频率误差基本在0.57%以下，风速频率误差为0.22%~0.60%；结果表明选取一个分型站点能够代表整个模拟区域内的风能资源特性。3）根据沿海和内陆山地模拟区域重合范围内的探空站分型结果对比分析发现：对于模拟区域重合范围内的探空站，采用所有模拟区域分型站典型日结果加权平均后的风能参数对比误差大大低于各自模拟区域分型站点的对比误差。 关键词 风能资源分型20~30 years) that was climatologically wind energy resource assessment, a new weather classification method was built. The classification method was based on surface and sounding observational data and three classification factor as wind speed, wind direction and daily maximum mixing layer height, and 5% days of each type were selected as typical days for simulation. The following conclusions were drawn by comparison analysis of wind energy parameters of typical days and 30 years in whole country: 1) The absolute error of average wind speed was less than 0.1 m/s between selected typical days and 30 years at all classification stations, and the relative error was all less than 6.5%. The average value of wind direction frequency relative error at all 16 wind directions was 0.28%~0.48%, while that of wind speed frequency relative error from 0 to 14 m/s wind speed was 0.09%~0.54%. 2) It was indicated by comparison of wind direction frequency and wind speed frequency at other sounding weather stations in the classification station area: the wind direction frequency error was 0.27%~0.63% in coastal area, and the wind speed frequency error was 0.14%~0.49%; while in inland mountain area that were less than 0.57% of wind direction frequency and 0.22%~0.60% of wind speed frequency. One sounding station was selected as classification station could represent wind character in the whole simulation area. 3) It was shown through comparison of class