CH3PROBABILITY(商务统计,英文版).pptVIP

Business StatisticsBEO 1106;PROBABILITY THEORY;HOW TO ASSIGN PROBABILITIES TO EVENTS?; Relative frequency (statistical) approach: It makes use of relatively frequencies calculated from large sets of observations from experiments or surveys. ; Subjective approach: It makes use of personal intuition, previous experience or general feelings.;LAWS OF PROBABILITY;Since the inequalities are satisfied. ;;;Let U and A denote the events ‘under 25’ and ‘Agree’, respectively. ;OR: at least one of the events happen, i.e. either U or A or both.;In general, The probability of the union of events, A and B:; Since P(A) + P( ) = 1, the probability of A complement is; If we have partial knowledge we must use this information when finding the probability of an event. Eg. If we know the person is over 55.; The conditional probability of event A, given B:;E.g.: We have found that P(A) = 0.40 and P(A | O) = 0.75. ;a) What is the probability that the company will win both contracts?;Ex 3: An investment analyst collects data on stocks and notes whether or not dividends were paid and whether or not the stocks increased in price over the last twelve months. ;b) What is the probability that it paid dividends?;If a stock is known not to have paid dividends, what is the probability that it increased in price?;If X is a discrete random variable, such as the revenue from a farm, then the farmer’s expected revenue is: