考虑天气因素的输电网可靠性区间评估及其仿射算法 - 电力系统保护与 .pdf

第44 卷 第 16 期 电力系统保护与控制 Vol.44 No.16 2016 年 8 月16 日 Power System Protection and Control Aug. 16, 2016 DOI: 10.7667/PSPC151617 考虑天气因素的输电网可靠性区间评估及其仿射算法 李小燕，丁 明，齐先军 (安徽省新能源利用与节能省级实验室 (合肥工业大学), 安徽 合肥 230009) 摘要：为了考虑故障率和天气因素的不确定性对电网可靠性评估的影响，在输电线路分段模型的基础上，引入区 间概率用于可靠性参数不确定的元件停运率建模。采用状态枚举法和区间运算对 IEEE-RBTS 系统进行可靠性评 估。针对区间运算结果过于保守的问题，引入仿射算法，有效缩减了计算结果的区间范围。计算结果表明，天气 因素对输电网可靠性评估的影响不容忽视，区间数形式的可靠性指标可以反映不确定部分的大小，证明了该方法 的合理性和有效性。 关键词：天气因素；输电网；可靠性评估；区间概率；仿射算法 Interval reliability evaluation and affine arithmetic of transmission network considering weather factors LI Xiaoyan, DING Ming, QI Xianjun (Provincial Laboratory of New Energy and Energy Conservation, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China) Abstract: By taking into consideration the effect of uncertainty of failure rate and weather condition on reliability evaluation of power system, based on the piece-wise model of transmission line, this paper presents a new reliability assessment model based on the interval probability theory to solve the uncertainty problem. The method uses interval arithmetic and state enumeration method to calculate interval-valued reliability indices of IEEE-RBTS. Furthermore, a large overestimate of boundaries in the interval arithmetic can be improved by affine arithmetic. The result shows that the weather condition will affect the reliability evaluation of the transmission system greatly, and the reliability indices in form of interval number also give the size of the u