养老金替代率与养老保险基金缺口的预测.pdfVIP

第 卷第 期 26 1 南通职业大学学报 Vol．26 No．1 年 月 2012 3 JOURNAL OF NANTONG VOCATIONAL COLLEGE Mar. 2012 南 通 职 业 大 学 学 报 2012 年 doi:10.3969/j.issn.1008-5327.2012.01.016 养老金替代率与养老保险基金缺口的预测 朱文辉 南通职业大学 基础课部 江苏 南通 （ ， 226007 ） 摘 要： 针对企业退休职工养老金的预测问题，建立了预测社会平均工资的最小二乘无缝接续模 型，并对信息运用的合理性进行了充分论证。在此基础上，将文字型的养老金计算公式转化为数学公 式，并给出了能直接计算养老金替代率的解析公式。为预测养老保险基金的运行状况，引入 账户 A 和 账户的概念，构造出迭代模式的账户余额函数，给计算养老保险基金的平衡点和缺口数量提供 B 了完整的依据。 关键词： 预测模型；养老保险基金；社会平均工资；养老金替代率 中图分类号： F840.612 文献标志码： A 文章编号： 1008-5327（2012 ）01-0060-05 Pension Replacement Rate and Forecast of Pension Insurance Fund Gap ZHU Wen-hui (Basic Course Department, Nantong Vocational College, Nantong 226007, China) Abstract: With regard to the forecast issue of the pension for enterprise retirees, this paper establishes a least square seamless continuous model to predict the social average salary and conducts a full argument on the reasonability of the use of information. On this basis, the text-based pension formula is transformed into a mathematical formula, and an idea is put forth that the analytical formula of the pension replacement rate can be calculated directly. For predicting the operating conditions of the pension insurance fund, the concepts of account A and account B are introduced and account balance function of the iteration mode is also formed, which provides a complete basi