AN INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMETRICS DPHU（计量经济学导论DPHU）.pdf

AN INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMETRICS Oxbridge Economics; Mo Tanweer Mohammed.Tanweer@cantab.net Econometrics  What is “econometrics”? Econometrics means “economic measurement” Economics + Statistics = Econometrics  Econometrics is concerned with the tasks of developing and applying quantitative or statistical methods to the study of economic principles  Econometrics is the use of statistical techniques to analyse economic data and compare with economic theory  One of its aims is to give empirical content to economic theory  What makes Econometrics different to Statistics?  Economic theories tend to be qualitative in nature  Economic data tends to be observational and more complex Examples of econometrics  As economists, we would like to understand the relationship between economic variables.  Is human capital a fundamental cause of growth?  Do improvements in educational spending by governments improve academic performance?  Can increases in the price of oil lead to reductions in national income?  Does an increase in national savings lead to an increase in investment?  If a government decreases the duration of time it offers unemployment benefit, does this lead to a lower unemployment rate?  Do fertility decisions in Pakistan exhibit socio-economic Regression Analysis  When we consider the nature and form of a relationship between any two or more variables, the analysis is referred to as regression analysis.  Theoretical econometrics:  considers questions about the statistical properties of estimators and tests, Applied econometrics:  is concerned with the application of econometric methods to assess economic theories  Descriptive - How does the stock market and interest rate move together?  Forecasting - Will we have a recession next year?  Causal - If