利率平价分析及利率市场化问题浅析.doc

利率平价分析及利率市场化问题浅析 Interest rate parity，is a no-arbitrage condition representing an equilibrium state under which investors will be indifferent to interest rates available on bank deposits in two countries.Two assumptions central to interest rate parity are capital mobility and perfect substitutability of domestic and foreign assets.Interest rate parity takes on two distinctive forms: uncovered interest rate parity refers to the parity condition in which exposure to foreign exchange risk (unanticipated changes in exchange rates) is uninhibited, whereas covered interest rate parity refers to the condition in which a forward contract has been used to cover (eliminate exposure to) exchange rate risk. Each form of the parity condition demonstrates a unique relationship with implications for the forecasting of future exchange rates: the forward exchange rate and the future spot exchange rate.Interest rate parity rests on certain assumptions, the first being that capital is mobile - investors can readily exchange domestic assets for foreign assets. The second assumption is that assets have perfect substitutability, following from their similarities in riskiness and liquidity. Given capital mobility and perfect substitutability, investors would be expected to hold those assets offering greater returns, be they domestic or foreign assets. First,we assume that the US interest rates is ,the pound rate is ,and the current exchange rate of the US dollar is .So,we will get a formula likeand.Interest rate parity show that the local currency interest rate should be equal to the sum of the the foreign currency interest rate and the expected appreciation rate of foreign currency. 利率市场化问题 利率市场化是指金融机构在货币市场经营融资的利率水平。它是由市场供求来决定，包括利率决定、利率传导、利率结构和利率管理的市场化。实际上，它就是将利率的决策权交给金融机构，由金融机构自己根据资金状况和对金融市场动向的判断来自主调节利率水平，最终形成以中央银行基准利率为基础，以货币市场利率为中介，由市场供求决定金融机构存贷款利率的市场利率体系和利率形成机制。这个理论最初由麦金农和肖在60年代末期和七十年代初期时首次提出。 中国在经过了改革开放30后飞速发展今天，随着金融市场的不断完善与深化，以及开放程度的不断提高，利率市场化改革越来越成为我国金融体制改革的重中之重。中国银行首席经济学家曹远征表示