Moores Law and Learning by Doing New York （摩尔定律和通过实践来学习纽约）.pdfVIP

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Moores Law and Learning by Doing New York （摩尔定律和通过实践来学习纽约）.pdf

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Moores Law and Learning by Doing New York （摩尔定律和通过实践来学习纽约）

Review of Economic Dynamics 5, 346–375 (2002) doi:10.1006/redy.2002.0162 ,available online at on Moore’s Law and Learning by Doing1 Boyan Jovanovic Department of Economics, University of Chicago, 1126 East 59th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637; and Department of Economics, New York University, 269 Mercer Street, New York, New York 10003 E-mail: bjovanov@ and Peter L. Rousseau Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee 37235 E-mail: peter.l.rousseau@ Received February 15 ,2001; revised January 15 ,2002 We model Moore’s law as efﬁciency of computer producers that rises as a by- product of their experience. We ﬁnd the following: (1) Because computer prices fall much faster than the prices of electricity-driven and diesel-driven capital ever did ,growth in the coming decades should be very fast. (2) The obsolescence of ﬁrms today occurs faster than before ,partly because the physical capital they own becomes obsolete faster. Journal of Economic Literature Classiﬁcation Number: O3.  2002 Elsevier Science (USA) Key Words: computers; electricity; internal combustion. 1. INTRODUCTION In 1965 ,the co-founder of Intel ,Gordon Moore ,predicted that the number of transistors per integrated circuit would double every 18 months. This has come to be known as Moore’s law. The Pentium 4 processor 1 W